Tenth Consecutive Week of Spot Rate Decline after Ocean’s “Early Peak”

Spot freight rates in the container shipping sector have now declined for the tenth consecutive week, a trend that reflects the challenges facing carriers after what has been described as an “early peak” in demand.

Industry observers note that this year’s peak season appears to have arrived and passed sooner than expected. The usual summer surge in volumes, which often supports stronger pricing into August and September, was front-loaded earlier in the year as shippers rushed to move goods in anticipation of potential market disruptions. With much of that demand already absorbed, rates have been on a steady downward path.

Despite this, there are hints that the pace of decline may be easing. Analysts suggest that spot rates are beginning to find a floor, with some trade lanes showing early signs of stabilization. According to Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, the prolonged fall in rates is partly a reflection of carriers keeping substantial capacity on the water, even as demand has softened. This strategy has allowed them to hold volumes but has placed pressure on pricing.

For shippers and forwarders, the persistent decline has created opportunities to secure more competitive contracts, although concerns remain over service reliability if carriers adjust capacity too sharply in the months ahead. For carriers, the outlook is less optimistic: unless demand rebounds later in the year, profitability could be tested, especially if fuel costs rise or operational disruptions emerge.

The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether rates have truly bottomed out or if further declines are in store. Much will depend on carriers’ willingness to blank sailings or reduce capacity, as well as on any late-season demand push from Asia to North America and Europe.