Red Sea Crisis Redirects New Shipping Capacity to Extended Asia–Europe Routes

The ongoing Red Sea crisis has significantly reshaped global shipping routes, with most new container capacity now being redirected to the extended Asia–Europe trades via the Cape of Good Hope.

According to recent reports, geopolitical tensions and persistent Houthi rebel attacks near the Suez Canal have compelled major carriers—including Maersk, MSC, and CMA CGM—to continue avoiding the Red Sea. As a result, carriers have deployed nearly all newly added vessel capacity to the longer Asia–Europe route to maintain sailing frequency and minimize disruptions. The extended route adds 10 to 18 days to transit times and has led to a 40% surge in fuel consumption per vessel, driving up operating costs and carbon emissions. Industry analysts have warned that the detours threaten to derail global decarbonization goals set by the IMO for 2030.

Drewry’s data indicates that freight rates on the Asia–North Europe route have soared by 186% year-on-year, largely due to tight vessel availability, increased bunker consumption, and the need to charter additional tonnage to maintain schedules. Estimates suggest that over 700,000 TEU of incremental capacity—roughly 23% of the trade lane’s total—has been added to support these extended services. The rerouting has also increased global ton-mile demand, with shipping lines collectively burning an estimated 13.6 million tonnes of additional fuel since December 2023. This shift is equivalent to the annual emissions of over nine million cars, raising environmental concerns across the logistics sector. With no resolution in sight, carriers are expected to maintain the detour through the Cape of Good Hope, making it the new normal for Asia–Europe container trade in the near term.