Qatar LNG Exports Collapsed to 0.23 Million Tonnes in April – Full Recovery May Take Until 2028

Qatar’s LNG export machine has suffered its most severe disruption in more than two decades, and analysts are warning that a full return to pre-war output levels may not arrive before 2028 at the earliest. Data compiled by tanker and gas analyst Nikolas Zannikos at AXSMarine illustrates the staggering scale of the collapse: after nearly a decade of steady monthly exports in the 5.6 million to 7.8 million tonne range, shipments fell to just 0.47 million tonnes in March 2026 and a further 0.23 million tonnes in April 2026.

Year-to-date exports stand at 14.85 million tonnes, against a nine-year average of 27.1 million tonnes for the same period — a shortfall of roughly 12 million tonnes in just four months, equivalent to around 15% of a typical full-year output. QatarEnergy has declared force majeure on long-term contracts following March strikes on Ras Laffan, leaving buyers across Asia, Europe, Italy, Belgium, South Korea, and China scrambling for replacement cargoes.

The physical damage at Ras Laffan is severe. QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi confirmed that Iranian attacks wiped out approximately 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity. Specifically, RasGas Trains 4 and 6 — representing a combined 12.8 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of capacity — were severely damaged, accounting for roughly 3% of global LNG output. Repair timelines are estimated at three to five years by QatarEnergy itself.

UK consultancy Drewry estimates that around 8.4 million tonnes of LNG supply has already been lost or disrupted since the start of the conflict, with that figure potentially rising to 60 million tonnes by the end of 2026 if current conditions persist. Much of the displaced demand has shifted to the U.S. Gulf Coast, where new capacity from terminals such as Plaquemines, Corpus Christi, and Sabine Pass has helped cushion the global supply shock.

Zannikos lays out a three-phase recovery timeline: operable trains restarting in late Q3 or Q4 2026 could restore up to 80% of pre-war capacity, but the remaining 20% — requiring replacement of damaged components from a limited global pool of manufacturers — may not return before 2028. Even as production gradually recovers, export volumes will remain tightly constrained by safe transit availability through the Strait of Hormuz.