Carriers continue to prioritise volumes and ignore Transpac rates slide

Carriers on the Transpacific trade are continuing to prioritise volumes over profitability, even as spot rates fall. The recently extended US–China tariff truce, which now runs until 10 November, had raised some hopes of market stability. In addition, carriers had scheduled a general rate increase (GRI) from 1 September.

However, industry observers argue that these measures are unlikely to have a lasting effect. Analysts note that earlier demand surges caused by front-loading, where shippers moved goods early to avoid tariffs, have now tapered off. This has left the market exposed, with rates sliding further.

Carriers are nonetheless reluctant to withdraw vessels or blank sailings. Instead, they are choosing to chase higher volumes, a strategy that protects market share but undermines pricing. The excess capacity in the market continues to outweigh demand, making it difficult to sustain rate increases. While this strategy offers shippers and forwarders opportunities to negotiate lower costs, it raises concerns about the financial resilience of carriers if the trend continues into the peak season. Longer-term, the industry may need to weigh the trade-off between maintaining market dominance and restoring profitability through tighter capacity management.