Global Air Cargo Market Cools as Demand Softens Despite Volume Growth

Global air cargo conditions continued to soften in October as carriers faced weakening demand, according to a report from Xeneta. While overall shipment volumes increased year over year, the rise in available capacity outpaced demand, resulting in subdued peak-season momentum across major trade lanes.

Xeneta noted that October demand held up better than anticipated despite the end of the U.S. de minimis exemption and reduced frontloading by shippers ahead of tariff changes. However, the broader outlook remains challenging, with many companies initiating cost-cutting measures in response to slowing projections, said Xeneta’s Chief Airfreight Officer Niall van de Wouw.

A notable drop in Europe–North America demand was identified as a potential early indicator of wider global cooling, especially since this lane typically supports general air cargo movement. Meanwhile, China-to-U.S. e-commerce shipments also continued to decline, falling sharply for the fifth consecutive month, impacted by policy changes affecting duty-free thresholds.

With demand softening, forwarders are expected to compete more aggressively for cargo volumes. Van de Wouw added that shippers generally prefer stronger overall sales environments even if it comes with higher freight costs, rather than lower sales combined with marginally lower logistics spend.